Space Governance

Trend Analysis

🔺 Rising:

• The emergence of international mechanisms for space activity coordination, as evidenced by new bodies like ATLAC for lunar governance consultations
• Increased focus on autonomous space systems regulations as AI-driven satellites make thousands of operational decisions without human input
• Growing emphasis on military space operations governance, with specialized legal manuals like the Woomera Manual gaining prominence
• Public-private partnership frameworks extending beyond traditional government space agencies to commercial ventures
• Integration of space governance considerations into national security and defense policy frameworks

🔻 Declining:

• The relevance of Cold War-era space treaties without substantial updates or interpretations for modern contexts
• Strictly state-centric governance models that fail to incorporate commercial space actors
• Siloed regulatory approaches that separate civil, commercial, and military space governance
• Unilateral approaches to space resource management as international consultation mechanisms gain traction
• Regulatory gaps between autonomous space system capabilities and legal frameworks for coordination

⚠️ Watch List:

• Potential challenges to the Outer Space Treaty from private companies pursuing space resource exploitation and settlement rights
• The development of ATLAC’s international mechanism for lunar consultation and its implications for broader space governance
• Emergence of new legal theories and state practices regarding autonomous space objects’ collision avoidance
• International responses to space militarization and shifts in strategic thinking about space as a warfighting domain
• Regulatory frameworks for space debris management and space traffic coordination evolving beyond voluntary guidelines

🧑‍💻 Expert’s View

The current space governance landscape is experiencing profound transformation driven by technological advances, commercial expansion, and strategic competition. The formal creation of ATLAC represents a promising diplomatic approach to evolving space governance through consensus-building rather than treaty rewriting. Meanwhile, autonomous systems are operating ahead of existing legal frameworks, creating dangerous gaps in coordination capabilities. The Woomera Manual stands as a significant milestone in clarifying military space operations legal frameworks, but the persistent challenges of resource appropriation, sovereignty claims, and the public-private interface remain contentious areas requiring sustained diplomatic effort and expert engagement.

⏩ Industry Outlook

In the next two months, we can expect increased diplomatic activity surrounding ATLAC’s mandate and consultation mechanisms, potentially setting precedents for how coordination will function beyond the lunar context. The Woomera Manual will likely be increasingly referenced in military discussions and exercises as nations calibrate their space defense postures. New commercial initiatives will continue to challenge traditional interpretations of treaty obligations regarding resource utilization and territorial claims, while automated collision avoidance systems will receive greater regulatory attention following recent near-miss incidents. Space traffic management proposals will gain momentum as crowded orbital regions demonstrate the inadequacy of current coordination mechanisms to address congestion challenges.

📰 Selected News Sources

Autonomy Has Outpaced International Space Law - War on the Rocks 🌐

The proliferation of AI-enabled autonomous systems in space has created a fundamental mismatch between existing international space law and operational realities. Recent collision-avoidance incidents highlight how current frameworks are dangerously outdated and require modernization to address instantaneous consultations between non-human actors and updated standards for harmful interference. The article argues for urgent updates to international space law to account for automated systems that make thousands of operational decisions daily.

Mars Attacks: How Elon Musk’s plans to colonize Mars threaten Earth - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 🌐

Elon Musk’s ambitions to create a one-million-person colony on Mars potentially threaten international cooperation and the establishment of space as a commons. The article examines how these plans could undermine the 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST), which has kept humanity safe for over 50 years. Under existing law, Mars settlers cannot form their own nation, and would remain the responsibility of Earth-bound nations, not free actors. The article warns that rejecting international governance could have lasting implications for geopolitical stability.

ATLAC And the Early Emergence of Lunar Governance - Modern Diplomacy 🌐

The United Nations Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) has formally created ATLAC (Action Team on Lunar Activities Consultation), potentially providing a missing piece in the evolving framework of lunar governance. This represents part of a two-pronged approach alongside the COPUOS Space Resources Working Group. ATLAC will consider establishing an international mechanism for improving lunar activity consultations, with key focus areas including notice of activities, avoidance of harmful interference, and balanced representation between major space powers.

Ted Richard reviews the Woomera Manual on the International Law of Military Space Activities and Operations - Duke Law 🌐

The Woomera Manual provides comprehensive guidance on international legal rules for military operations in space. Following the tradition of domain-specific legal manuals like the San Remo Manual (naval warfare) and Tallinn Manual (cyber warfare), it aligns existing international legal rules with space law while emphasizing state practice. The review notes that while the manual is “essential reading for anyone practicing space law in the international sector,” it occasionally struggles with articulating hypotheticals for indiscriminate weapons and fully capturing US positions on certain law-of-war rules.

China’s Strategic Ascent in Space: New Dynamics in 2025 - Modern Diplomacy 🌐

China has emerged as a dominant space power reshaping international space cooperation through initiatives like the BRICS Remote Sensing Satellite Constellation and the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organisation (APSCO). Key objectives for 2025 include the Tianwen-2 asteroid sampling mission, quantum communication satellites in low Earth orbit, and solar power satellite development. China’s space agenda reflects a highly strategic approach to expand technological capabilities, pioneer asteroid resource utilization, and establish leadership in secure next-generation communications.

Global Governance: A Collective Response to Global Challenges - Modern Diplomacy 🌐

Effective global governance requires inclusive stakeholder representation from emerging economies, indigenous communities, and civil society in decision-making processes. The article emphasizes the importance of strong financing mechanisms for global initiatives and technology sharing, particularly for developing nations. Multilateralism must be promoted to prevent states from pursuing solo interests, with increased collaboration across governments, NGOs, and the private sector to enhance governance effectiveness and address common challenges.

Bridging Earthly Divides: The Rise of Space Diplomacy - Modern Diplomacy 🌐

Space diplomacy has evolved from Cold War competition to become the foundation for responsible exploration, global governance, and sustainable development. NASA’s Artemis Accords embody principles for cooperation and peaceful exploration based on transparency, resource sharing, and peaceful use of celestial bodies. With the global space economy projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, sustainability has become a major concern, requiring collective action for debris management and environmental protection in space.

The Geopolitics of AI and the Emerging Role of India - Modern Diplomacy 🌐

The third edition of the Paris AI Action Summit in February 2025 addressed five main themes: Public Interest AI, Future of Work, Innovation and Culture, Trust in AI, and Global AI Governance. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi co-chaired the summit, highlighting India’s growing role in shaping technology governance. The article examines how previous declarations like the Bletchley Declaration (2023) have established frameworks for human-centric, trustworthy AI governance that could inform approaches to autonomous systems in space.

Chang’e 7: A New Chapter in China’s Space Exploration - Modern Diplomacy 🌐

China plans to launch the Chang’e 7 mission in 2026 as part of the fourth phase of its lunar exploration program, marking progress toward lunar colonization. The mission will deploy an AI-powered flying detector capable of climbing, jumping, crawling, and flying through rocket propulsion to thoroughly explore the Atkins Basin-South pole. Success would enhance possibilities for Mars exploration and deep space analysis, while demonstrating China’s technological capabilities in autonomous space operations and resource identification.

David Koplow introduces “The Woomera Manual: A Handbook on the Military Law of Outer Space” 🌐

The recently published Woomera Manual provides the first comprehensive presentation of the international legal regime governing national security actions in outer space. The handbook addresses key principles including the persistent challenge of “demarcation” - the boundary between air and space. Contrary to perceptions of space as a “law-free zone,” there exists a substantial corpus of international law regulating human activities in space that the manual systematically articulates.

In the Woomera Manual, International Law Meets Military Space Activities 🌐

The Woomera Manual provides much-needed clarity about the fast-moving legal domain of space law, following the tradition of prior efforts to articulate applicable international military law in contested realms. While foundational space treaties from the 1960s and 1970s provide a starting framework, the Woomera analysis confronts numerous gaps in existing law and practice. The manual aims to articulate existing rules and identify areas needing further development to provide practical guidance for space law practitioners across government, academia, NGOs, and the private sector.

The Woomera Manual and Military Space Activities and Operations - Lieber Institute West Point 🌐

The Woomera Manual deals with three distinct themes: peacetime military activities in space, military activities during strategic tension and crisis, and military space operations during armed conflict. Unlike other international operational law manuals that often present majority/minority positions, the Woomera Manual’s methodology relies heavily on treaty interpretation and available state practice through examination of travaux preparatoires, official statements, and information from international military space exercises.

Space debris crash lack accountability liability convention - The Hindu 🌐

Space debris management remains a critical challenge for international space governance, with increasing collision risks as orbital congestion grows. Current liability frameworks are insufficient to address responsibility for debris creation and mitigation. The article examines how the Liability Convention addresses damage caused by space objects but lacks robust enforcement mechanisms for debris prevention and remediation, highlighting governance gaps that threaten sustainable space utilization.

Space laws that governed NASA’s stranded astronauts - Economic Times 🌐

Recent incidents involving stranded astronauts have highlighted the practical application of international space law to rescue operations. The article examines how existing treaties, particularly the 1968 Rescue Agreement, facilitate cooperation during emergencies involving personnel in space. These situations demonstrate both the strengths and limitations of current frameworks for addressing unforeseen crises in space operations, with implications for future governance requirements as human presence in space expands.

Cybersecurity and space: Is Australia keeping up with international standards? - Law Society Journal 🌐

The intersection of cybersecurity and space governance presents complex regulatory challenges for nations like Australia. The article examines how international standards are evolving to address cyber threats to space systems, which increasingly rely on autonomous operations. Australia’s regulatory approach demonstrates the difficulties nations face in balancing national security concerns with international cooperation requirements, particularly as space and cyber domains become increasingly integrated.

As the rescued astronauts return, space law is still in orbit over who’s responsible when missions go wrong - Down To Earth 🌐

Recent astronaut rescue operations have exposed ambiguities in international space law regarding responsibility for mission failures and emergency responses. The article explores how liability is determined when spacecraft malfunction, particularly in the context of increasing commercial space activities. Current treaties establish broad principles but lack detailed protocols for complex scenarios involving multiple nations and private actors, highlighting governance gaps requiring international attention.

Commencing Countdown: Taiwan’s Journey in Space Development - Taiwan Insight 🌐

Taiwan’s expanding space program navigates complex international governance frameworks despite diplomatic isolation. The article examines how Taiwan has developed space capabilities while working within constraints of limited international recognition. This case illustrates how space governance extends beyond purely technical considerations into geopolitical dynamics, with implications for how non-traditional space actors engage with international frameworks.

DLA Piper: Space Exploration and Innovation 🌐

Legal services for space activities are expanding rapidly to address governance challenges faced by both public and private entities. The article outlines how law firms are developing specialized practices to navigate the complex regulatory environment for space operations. These services indicate the growing sophistication of space governance frameworks and their increasing relevance to commercial ventures seeking to operate within established international legal parameters.