Space China, Russia and Global South

Trend Analysis

🔺 Rising:

• China-Pakistan Space Partnership: Pakistan is sending two astronauts for training at China’s Manned Space Agency, marking the first time China will train foreign astronauts for its Tiangong space station missions scheduled for 2026
• African Space Agency Operationalization: The African Space Agency officially became operational in April 2025 in Cairo, coordinating efforts across 21 African nations developing over 120 satellites by 2030
• Middle East Commercial Space Growth: UAE and Saudi Arabia are establishing satellite manufacturing capabilities through ventures like Orbitworks and Neo Space Group, transitioning from buyers to producers
• BRICS Space Cooperation Expansion: BRICS Joint Committee on Space Cooperation is extending its Remote Sensing Satellite Constellation to new member states, promoting technological parity and data sovereignty
• International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) Partnerships: Over 40 institutions globally have signed cooperation documents with China for ILRS, with recent additions including Senegal, Thailand, and Pakistan

🔻 Declining:

• Russia’s Launch Cadence: Russia conducted only 19 launches in 2023, its lowest since 1961, hampered by sanctions, loss of Western customers, and financial constraints following Ukraine invasion
• Western-Russia Space Cooperation: European Space Agency severed ties with Roscosmos in 2022, ending partnerships on ExoMars and lunar ventures, with ISS cooperation expected to end by 2031
• Traditional Donor Dependency: Global South nations are increasingly pursuing South-South cooperation rather than relying solely on Western partnerships for space technology development
• Single-Nation Satellite Projects in Africa: Growing preference for coordinated continental approaches through AfSA rather than redundant individual national satellite programs

👀 Watch List:

• Nuclear Power on the Moon: China and Russia are considering building nuclear reactors on the lunar surface by 2035 to power the International Lunar Research Station
• China’s 2030 Lunar Landing: China is making significant progress toward its goal of landing taikonauts on the Moon by 2030, with successful tests of Long March-10 rocket engines and Lanyue lander systems
• BRICS Space Council Formation: Brazil has proposed creating a BRICS Space Council to better organize collaborative projects, training programs, and technical information exchange
• Africa-EU Space Partnership: €100 million program launched in 2025 under EU’s Global Gateway Strategy to strengthen African capabilities in climate monitoring and disaster management
• Commercial Space Manufacturing in Gulf: Middle East transitioning from space services consumer to producer, with satellite manufacturing facilities being established in UAE and Saudi Arabia

🧑‍💻 Expert’s View

The space landscape among China, Russia, and Global South nations is undergoing a fundamental restructuring toward multipolarity and South-South cooperation. China’s strategic decision to make Pakistan the first foreign partner for its Tiangong space station signals a deliberate effort to position itself as the leader of Global South space ambitions, directly countering Western-led initiatives like Artemis. Russia, despite facing unprecedented challenges from sanctions and loss of Western partnerships, maintains critical capabilities in nuclear space technology and continues its strategic alignment with China through ILRS. Meanwhile, the operationalization of the African Space Agency and the expansion of BRICS space cooperation mechanisms demonstrate that developing nations are no longer content to be passive recipients of space technology but are actively building indigenous capabilities and South-South partnerships that challenge traditional power structures in space governance.

🔮 Industry Outlook

Over the next two months, expect accelerated momentum in China-led multilateral space initiatives, particularly as Pakistan’s astronaut selection in October 2025 moves forward and Thailand finalizes its ILRS participation. The African Space Agency will likely announce additional partnerships and concrete satellite projects as it consolidates its role as the primary coordination body for continental space activities. Russia’s Soyuz-5 launch, planned for December 2025, will be closely watched as a test of Moscow’s ability to maintain space capabilities under sanctions. The BRICS space cooperation framework will continue expanding with potential announcements of joint Earth observation projects during Brazil’s 2025 presidency. In the Middle East, UAE’s MBZ-SAT satellite launch and continued development of commercial satellite manufacturing capabilities will further establish the region as an emerging space hub. The geopolitical competition between the US-led Artemis program and the China-Russia ILRS will intensify as both sides race to secure partnerships with Global South nations, with space cooperation increasingly becoming a key element of broader strategic and economic relationships.

📰 Selected News Sources

Pakistan-China Space Collaboration: Astronaut Training Begins ↗

Pakistan is preparing to send two citizens for a yearlong astronaut training program at China’s Manned Space Agency starting in October 2025, marking a historic milestone in bilateral space cooperation. The astronauts will undergo extensive preparation before embarking on a week-long mission to the Chinese Space Station in 2026. The Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission has shortlisted over 300 scientific experiments from across Pakistan for the mission, covering fields including biology, medical sciences, applied physics, aerospace, and astronomy. This initiative is part of a broader five-year action plan between Pakistan and China that includes establishing a Pakistan Space Centre and preparing for lunar and deep space exploration. The program represents a significant step toward Pakistan’s participation in human spaceflight missions alongside China.

Pakistan to send two citizens for astronaut training in China ↗

Under Pakistan’s Astronaut Programme, two individuals will be selected in October 2025 for one year of astronaut training at the China Manned Space Agency. After completing their training, the pair are scheduled to spend one week aboard China’s space station in October 2026. Earlier this year, Suparco signed a cooperation agreement with CMSA, setting the stage for Pakistan’s first astronauts to embark on a mission to Tiangong. The landmark agreement stipulates that two Pakistani astronauts will undergo training at the Astronaut Centre of China. Earlier this month, Pakistan and China agreed to boost cooperation in space sciences, focusing on astronaut training and establishing a Pakistan Space Centre as part of their Action Plan for 2025-2029. Both countries reaffirmed their commitment to joint work on lunar and deep space exploration, including multilevel assessments of the International Lunar Research Station.

African Collaboration in the Space Domain Holds Potential for Continental Benefits ↗

More than 21 African countries have established space programs, with 18 having launched at least one satellite. The continent has launched a combined total of 65 satellites, with over 120 additional satellites in development expected to be launched by 2030. Annual African government spending on space has averaged roughly $500 million in recent years, with Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Morocco, Algeria, and Angola leading investments. The African Space Agency was inaugurated in April 2025 in Cairo, with a mission to harmonize national strategies, promote joint missions, pool costs, and negotiate international partnerships. One of AfSA’s early flagship efforts is the Africa-EU Space Partnership Programme, launched in 2025 with €100 million in funding under the EU’s Global Gateway Strategy. This initiative aims to leverage European expertise to strengthen African capabilities in climate monitoring, agriculture, disaster risk management, and private sector development while ensuring African ownership of data and systems.

Satellites: more than 120 under development in Africa for launch by 2030 ↗

African states collectively spend approximately $500 million annually on their space programs, investing in Earth observation, communications, and scientific satellites. The continent has more than 120 additional satellites under development with launches planned by 2030. Currently, more than 21 African countries have established space programs and 18 have launched at least one satellite, with a combined total of 65 satellites launched. Among leaders in space are Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Morocco, Algeria, and Angola, which have all made sustained investments in the field. South Africa is even collaborating with NASA on the Artemis program. To prevent fragmentation, the African Union inaugurated the African Space Agency in April 2025, based in Cairo, Egypt. Its mission includes harmonizing national strategies, promoting joint missions, pooling costs, negotiating international partnerships, and ensuring that space activities directly support the African Union’s Agenda 2063 vision for a prosperous and integrated continent.

African Space Agency Now Operational ↗

Africa’s long-standing ambitions in space took a historic step forward on April 20, 2025, with the official inauguration of the African Space Agency at its permanent headquarters in Egypt’s Space City, Cairo. The landmark event marks the culmination of nearly a decade of strategic groundwork that began in January 2016 when the African Union Assembly adopted the African Space Policy and Strategy. The inauguration ceremony was attended by prestigious guests including African Union Commission officials, representatives from African governments and space agencies, ambassadors, and high-level delegates from the global space community. Representatives from NASA, European Space Agency, Italian Space Agency, UAE Space Agency, and France’s CNES all delivered goodwill messages emphasizing their commitment to collaborating with Africa. The agency will serve as the primary point of contact for Africa’s cooperation with Europe and other international partners, ensuring optimal access to space-derived data, information, services, and products.

Russia’s Space Program Is Another Casualty of the War in Ukraine ↗

Russia’s war in Ukraine remains the chief stumbling block for its space program, not only because of backlash from US and European allies but also because the war effort has strained Russia’s coffers and distracted its scientific and technical workforce. This has contributed to recent financial cuts and technical delays for Russia’s space program. Russian officials have made clear their intention to accelerate the lunar program, which will unfold across multiple missions. Lev Zelenyi, chief research officer of the Space Research Institute, expressed modest hopes for deeper cooperation between the US and Russia in the space sector but noted that in the case of the Russian lunar program, it is going its own way without great prospects for cooperation. One potential area ripe for partnership is Venus, a world that only the Soviet-era Russian space program has ever managed to land on. The new Roscosmos director treats Russia’s return there as a foregone conclusion.

Investing in Space: Made in Russia ↗

Roscosmos plans to launch the Soyuz-5 in December 2025 from Kazakhstan’s Baikonur Cosmodrome. The Soyuz-5 is widely viewed as an all-Russian medium-class launch vehicle that reincarnates the Ukraine-manufactured Zenit-2 rocket. The war in Ukraine marked a turning point for Russia’s space sector, as the European Space Agency severed ties with Roscosmos in 2022, ending partnerships over the ExoMars rover mission and lunar ventures. The dissolution also saw Roscosmos pull out from the ESA space center in Kourou, French Guiana, which had hosted 27 Soyuz launches carrying OneWeb and Galileo satellites between 2011-2022. The Russian space agency is paying Kazakhstan $115 million annually to lease the Baikonur complex until 2050. The real test for Russian innovation will come once Moscow completes development of the Soyuz-7, known as the Amur-SPG, a methane-fueled launch vehicle designed for reusability.

Russia’s space legacy: From pioneer to global leader ↗

On October 4, Russia marks Space Forces Day, celebrating its legacy in space and its growing leadership today. Russia and China are teaming up on the International Lunar Station, moon missions, and GLONASS-Beidou navigation cooperation. A new Russia-Iran strategic deal boosts their peaceful space projects. Russia deepens space ties with India, South Africa, and Brazil, with a BRICS Space Council already on the table. Russia’s cooperation with NASA endures as both sides discuss the future of the ISS. The Russian National Space Center will reinforce the country’s global leadership. President Putin touts Russia’s space industry as a key driver of growth and tech sovereignty, pushing new spacecraft and launchers. The new Oreshnik hypersonic missile can fly along a ballistic path into near space, which Putin calls a historic milestone.

Global Influence: The Middle East is Rewriting What it Can Do in Space ↗

Middle East nations, particularly UAE and Saudi Arabia, are rapidly scaling their space ambitions with new strategic partnerships. Orbitworks, a 2024 joint venture operating in the UAE capital, is the nation’s first commercial mass-manufacturer of satellites, developing Altair, the UAE’s first home-built AI-enabled Earth observation constellation. Saudi’s Neo Space Group, founded in 2024 and seeded by the Public Investment Fund, is positioned as an anchor for joint manufacturing and tech-transfer programs. NSG has leveraged strategic acquisitions to boost capabilities, including UP42 and TAQNIA ETS, giving NSG access to more than 130 Earth observation data products. Additionally, NSG is establishing a global space-focused venture capital fund to invest in startups, accelerate technology localization within Saudi Arabia, and foster innovation within its space ecosystem. Neither country is trying to build every piece of the value chain from scratch, instead focusing on parts that matter for autonomy, revenue, and local talent.

UAE charts new frontiers in space with landmark 2025 achievements ↗

The UAE entered 2025 with a busy schedule of satellite launches. On January 4, Thuraya 4 lifted off alongside Mohammed bin Zayed Sat, Al Ain Sat-1, HCT-SAT 1, and the second phase of the Foresight satellite constellation. On March 15, the UAE launched its first radar satellite, UnionSat. In February, the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre signed a strategic agreement with Thales Alenia Space to design and operate the Pressure Equalisation Unit for NASA’s Gateway lunar space station. The 10-tonne unit will be operated by the UAE for at least 15 years, securing the country a permanent role in the world’s largest lunar exploration programme and priority access to cutting-edge scientific data. The National Space Academy launched the Space Mission and Satellite Engineering Programme in partnership with EDGE. Running over ten weeks from September 16 to November 20, 2025, the program highlights the UAE’s ongoing commitment to advancing national space capabilities and empowering local talent.

Middle East Space Roundup: 15 to 21 September 2025 ↗

The US-UAE Business Council, in partnership with the Bay Area Council, hosted a reception on September 17, 2025 for 50 UAE Chief AI Officers, joined by over 150 US and UAE executives and officials. The delegation, representing more than 40 ministries and authorities including the UAE Space Agency, discussed opportunities for collaboration in artificial intelligence, advanced technology, and space innovation. Neo Space Group officially joined the Global Satellite Operators Association, aligning with the world’s leading satellite operators to promote a more connected, resilient, and sustainable future. As Saudi Arabia’s national space champion, NSG is driving innovation across satellite communications, geospatial intelligence, and in-flight connectivity. The Space Mission and Satellite Engineering Programme, organised by the National Space Academy in collaboration with EDGE, officially kicked off with keynote addresses from senior leaders at EDGE and the UAE Space Agency. The program runs over ten weeks highlighting the UAE’s ongoing commitment to advancing national space capabilities.

China To Ramp Up its Launch Capacity in 2025 ↗

China’s space program has already launched six times in 2025. The Long March 8A rocket made its maiden flight, featuring a more powerful second stage and larger payload fairing, allowing the rocket to bring 7,000 kg to sun-synchronous orbit. The explosive growth of China’s commercial capabilities is expected to give the nation more options for low-cost launches going forward. CAS Space’s Lijian-2 launcher is scheduled to take its first orbital flight in September, bringing the company’s Qingzhou cargo spacecraft to Tiangong on its first delivery mission. China will take advantage of growing launch capacity to accelerate deployment of its Thousand Sails and Guowang satellite broadband constellations, both Chinese competitors to Starlink. Beijing has been cultivating international partnerships to grow its space footprint. In Africa especially, where US influence is waning, China has signed over 20 space partnerships, funding satellites and ground stations across the continent, as well as a satellite manufacturing plant in Egypt.

China advances space program with planned 2025 missions ↗

China is set to make significant strides in its space program in 2025, focusing on space station operations and manned lunar exploration. In 2025, China plans to launch two manned missions and one cargo resupply mission to the Tiangong space station. The latest astronaut selection included two experts from the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions. The space station has supported over 180 scientific research projects in space life sciences, human research, microgravity physics, and space technology, yielding groundbreaking results. China recently signed an agreement with the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission in Islamabad, marking the first step in training foreign astronauts for Chinese space missions. Pakistani astronauts will train in China for a future mission aboard the Chinese space station. China is advancing toward its goal of landing astronauts on the Moon by 2030, with key mission components including the Long March-10 rocket, Mengzhou crew module, Lanyue lunar lander, Wangyu spacesuit, and Tansuo crewed lunar rover all in the prototype stage.

China is making serious progress in its goal to land astronauts on the moon by 2030 ↗

China is going full throttle in its quest to land astronauts on the moon by 2030, evidenced by recent key tests. On August 15, 2025, China conducted a ground test of the first-stage propulsion system of the Long March 10 rocket, involving seven YF-100K engines running on liquid oxygen and kerosene fuel. The engines roared for about 35 seconds, with thrust reaching nearly 1,000 tons, a record for China’s space program. Prior to this, there was a successful pad-abort test of the Mengzhou crewed spacecraft, where the escape engine propelled the capsule-tower assembly upward. About 20 seconds later, the return capsule separated from the escape tower at a predetermined altitude, parachuting safely using an airbag cushioning system. China also conducted key liftoff and landing tests with its Lanyue moon lander on August 6, 2025. These milestones demonstrate China’s systematic approach to achieving its ambitious lunar landing goal.

China, Russia May Build Nuclear Plant on Moon to Power Lunar Station ↗

China is considering building a nuclear plant on the moon to power the International Lunar Research Station it is planning with Russia, according to a presentation by a senior official in April 2025. China aims to land astronauts on the moon by 2030, and its planned Chang’e-8 mission for 2028 would lay the groundwork for constructing a permanent, manned lunar base. The lunar base’s energy supply could also depend on large-scale solar arrays and pipelines and cables for heating and electricity built on the moon’s surface. Russia’s space agency Roscosmos announced plans to build a nuclear reactor on the moon’s surface with the China National Space Administration by 2035. Wu Weiren, chief designer of China’s lunar exploration program, stated that Russia has a natural advantage when it comes to nuclear power plants in space, where it leads the world. He expressed hope that both countries can send a nuclear reactor to the moon. China’s timeline to build an outpost on the moon’s south pole coincides with NASA’s Artemis programme.

BRICS expands cooperation in the space sector ↗

Representatives of BRICS space agencies met in Brasília to strengthen international cooperation in three main topics: reducing technological asymmetries among member countries, promoting sustainability in the use of space, and advancing the BRICS Virtual Constellation of Remote Sensing Satellites. Brasil’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation emphasized the strategic nature of cooperation among bloc countries. According to the president of the Brazilian Space Agency, the exchange of information and data among countries is essential to balance technical capacities, as not all BRICS countries possess the same level of infrastructure, experience or resources. One main goal is reducing technological asymmetry through technical cooperation and training. As a concrete action, the president mentioned proposals to create initiatives aimed at training personnel, exchanging students and researchers, and sharing teaching and research structures. Brasil also resumed the proposal to create a BRICS Space Council to allow more effective organization of various projects underway.

BRICS advances debate on fair access to information technologies in outer space ↗

The BRICS Ministers of Communications approved in June 2025 the Ministerial Declaration of Cooperation in Information and Communication Technologies, which explicitly addresses the sustainability of outer space. An annex was produced on the importance of fair access to space for countries to enable communication, exploration, and related scientific activities. The meeting took place at Itamaraty Palace in Brasília. Brasil’s Minister of Communications and the coordinator of BRICS Digital stated that advances in space sustainability are possibly the greatest achievement of the Brazilian presidency. The document addresses the issue of regulation of non-geostationary satellites, which differ from geostationary satellites in their movement, orbit duration, and altitude. The International Telecommunication Union has carried out efficient regulation of geostationary orbits for 40 years, but does not have a clearly defined mandate to regulate non-geostationary satellites, which are being launched by the hundreds in recent constellations.

Strategic vision and innovation is boosting India’s space economy ↗

India’s space economy is on the verge of transformative expansion driven by groundbreaking advances in technology. IN-SPACe’s Decadal Vision and Strategy serves as the framework for the country’s ambitious space economy agenda. It envisages India capturing 8% of the global space market by 2033 and growing its space economy to $44 billion. This ambitious vision hinges on strong government support, rapid technological innovation led by ISRO, and development of a vibrant private space sector. ISRO’s achievements, including Chandrayaan-3 and Mars Orbiter Mission, have highlighted India’s cost-effectiveness without compromising scientific fidelity. This has led to India carving a niche positioning for itself among other players in space. The Indian Space Policy 2023 needs to be buttressed with comprehensive legislation that supports innovation while safeguarding national security and economic interests. The Indian national space bill is being readied and is expected to be released soon for industry consultation.