Space China, Russia and Global South

Trend Analysis

🔺 Rising:

• China’s expanding role as a space mentor for developing nations through bilateral partnerships, training programs, and technology transfer
• Formation of distinct space blocs with the China-Russia led International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) challenging the U.S.-led Artemis Accords
• Integration of space technologies in addressing Global South development challenges, including agriculture, climate monitoring, and resource management
• Space diplomacy as a tool for strengthening geopolitical relations, particularly China’s engagement with South Asian and African nations
• Growing interest from developing nations in establishing independent space capabilities to reduce technological dependence
• Active participation of Global South countries in international space governance discussions and policymaking forums

🔻 Declining:

• Western monopoly on human spaceflight capabilities as China’s Tiangong space station emerges as the only alternative to the ISS
• Traditional North-South cooperation models in space as South-South partnerships gain momentum
• Distinction between civil and military space applications, with increased dual-use technologies affecting international cooperation
• Willingness of Russia to collaborate with Western space powers, pivoting instead toward China and other Eastern partnerships
• Accessibility barriers for developing nations as more countries establish national space agencies and acquire satellite capabilities
• Centralized space governance frameworks as regional and alternative cooperation mechanisms emerge

⚠️ Watch List:

• Potential expansion of China’s International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) partnerships to include more Global South nations
• Russia’s evolving role in space as Western sanctions impact its aerospace sector and drive closer ties with China
• Impact of commercial space actors on developing nations’ space strategies and sovereign capabilities
• Emerging regulatory frameworks for space resources utilization and their implications for developing nations
• India’s positioning as a bridging power between established space powers and emerging space nations
• Integration of space-based assets into development aid strategies and South-South cooperation mechanisms
• Potential space security implications of deeper China-Russia defense cooperation extending to orbital assets

🧑‍💻 Expert’s View

The evolving landscape of space cooperation between China, Russia, and Global South nations represents a significant shift in the geopolitical space order. China has strategically positioned itself as the partner of choice for developing nations seeking to build space capabilities, filling a vacuum created by Western nations’ focus on established space powers. This approach extends China’s terrestrial Belt and Road Initiative into orbital domains, creating a network of space dependencies that strengthen its global influence. Russia’s pivot eastward in space cooperation, accelerated by geopolitical tensions with the West, has created a robust Sino-Russian space alliance that offers an alternative framework to U.S.-led space governance. For Global South nations, these partnerships provide much-needed technological access and capacity building, though questions remain about long-term dependencies and the balance between civil and military applications in these emerging space relationships.

⏩ Industry Outlook

Over the next two months, we can expect China to further formalize its agreements with Pakistan regarding astronaut training for the Tiangong mission, likely announcing specific timelines and scientific objectives. Russia will continue to deepen space cooperation with China while potentially reaching out to additional Asian and Middle Eastern partners to broaden its space diplomacy efforts beyond China. More developing nations will likely announce intentions to join either the ILRS or Artemis frameworks, with some strategically maintaining relations with both blocs to maximize technological benefits. Commercial space companies will increasingly target Global South markets for satellite applications, potentially offering cost-effective alternatives to government-to-government space partnerships. The UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space will likely see greater participation from developing nations advocating for more equitable access to space resources and technologies, challenging traditional governance models dominated by established space powers.

📰 Selected News Sources

China’s Tiangong space station will host Pakistani astronaut as first foreign visitor 🌐

China and Pakistan have signed a historic agreement that will result in the first foreign astronaut visiting China’s Tiangong space station. As part of the agreement, China will assist Pakistan in selecting and training astronauts, who will then travel to China for further preparation before joining a Chinese crew for a short-term mission aboard Tiangong. This marks a significant milestone in China’s space diplomacy efforts and deepens the already strong cooperation between the two countries in various fields.

Russia and China Reaffirm Their Space Partnership 🌐

Russia and China have announced plans to build a lunar nuclear power plant between 2033 and 2035, further strengthening their space partnership. This collaboration leverages Russia’s nuclear expertise and China’s growing space capabilities and funding. The announcement signals Russia’s continued eastward realignment in space cooperation and China’s willingness to publicly associate with Russia despite international tensions. This partnership is part of their joint International Lunar Research Station project, which appears to be a response to NASA’s Artemis program.

Growing space cooperation between Pakistan, China presents risks and opportunities, experts say 🌐

The expanding space cooperation between China and Pakistan, including training for Pakistan’s first astronaut and inclusion of a Pakistani rover on China’s Chang’e-8 moon mission, presents both opportunities and challenges. Experts suggest that while Pakistan gains access to advanced space capabilities, it should develop its own technological strengths to ensure the relationship becomes more balanced over time. The agreement comes as the International Space Station approaches retirement, positioning China’s Tiangong as the only government-operated space station in orbit.

China builds space alliances in Africa as Trump cuts foreign aid 🌐

China is actively building space partnerships across Africa, establishing 23 bilateral agreements that include funding for satellites and ground stations. This strategic approach stands in contrast to U.S. policy shifts that have reduced foreign aid. Beijing’s space investments strengthen its global surveillance capabilities while creating important technological dependencies. Several African countries, including Egypt, South Africa, and Senegal, have agreed to collaborate with China on its lunar base project, positioning Beijing as a key space partner for developing nations.

China-Russia Space Cooperation: Implications of a Growing Relationship 🌐

China-Russia space cooperation encompasses defense-related activities including ballistic missile defense, space debris monitoring, and satellite navigation. Their joint lunar exploration efforts, formalized in a 2021 MOU, appear to be a response to the U.S.-led Artemis Accords. This cooperation reflects broader efforts to build mutual trust, counter Western pressure, and achieve common national security goals. The relationship demonstrates deepening strategic partnership that may pose challenges for U.S. influence over their space activities.

Contours of Space Diplomacy in the Global South 🌐

Space diplomacy has become increasingly important for Global South nations as their space capabilities grow. More than half of the world’s space agencies or commissions are now in developing countries. These nations face challenges including limited budgets, talent migration, and commercial competition. A platform to catalog requirements, resources, and facilities across the Global South is needed to facilitate better cooperation. Forums like G-20 and BRICS could help create regulations for peaceful sharing of space resources among developing nations.

Bad Idea: Focusing International Space Cooperation on Established Space Powers 🌐

U.S. international space cooperation remains heavily concentrated among wealthy nations with established space programs, missing opportunities with developing space nations. China has exploited this gap by establishing itself as the partner of choice for countries seeking to gain a foothold in space. This approach leaves these nations more reliant on Chinese systems, potentially undercutting U.S. commercial space industry competitiveness. To address this, NASA could establish liaison offices in regions with emerging space powers like Africa, Latin America, and South Asia.

Exclusive: China, Russia to sign new 5-year space cooperation program, build intl lunar station by 2035 🌐

China and Russia have developed a new space cooperation program for 2023-2027, including plans to create an International Lunar Research Station by 2035. The countries are implementing agreements on coordinating Russia’s Luna-Resurs-1 spacecraft with China’s Chang’e-7 mission and establishing a joint Lunar and Deep Space Exploration Data Center. They are also cooperating on satellite navigation to ensure compatibility between the GLONASS and BeiDou systems, with mutual ground measuring stations to be installed.

Outer Space Must Be a Place for Peace and Cooperation, Not an Arms Race 🌐

The international community reached a remarkable milestone with 17 people simultaneously orbiting Earth in May, the Chair of the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space reported. Delegates stressed the importance of preserving outer space as an arena for international cooperation and highlighted how space technologies support sustainable development. Access to outer space was described as an inalienable right of all states, with calls for technology transfer and capacity-building programs to benefit developing countries.

Space Command Boss Warns of Russia, China Cooperation 🌐

U.S. Space Command’s General Whiting has warned about growing cooperation in space between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. As Russia has struggled in Ukraine, it appears to have increasingly turned to these countries for assistance, potentially sharing more in the space domain. Recent examples include a Russian rocket carrying an Iranian satellite, Russia and China announcing plans for a lunar nuclear power plant, and Russia helping North Korea’s space program, adding complexity to an already contested space environment.

Delegates Spotlight Ways That Space Technology Can Help Reach Global Goals 🌐

Delegates from the Global South have emphasized how space technology can help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Iraq described using high-resolution satellite imagery to evaluate war consequences, while India highlighted its 260 space cooperation agreements covering various technical areas. Developing nations stressed that space exploration must align with development of new international rules, with equal participation of all countries in space governance and fair benefit-sharing to support the 2030 Agenda.

‘We Are, We Were and We Will Remain Cooperative in All Space Activities,’ Says India 🌐

India has reaffirmed its commitment to international space cooperation, stating “We are, we were and we will remain cooperative in all space activities.” The country’s space program has been driven by using technology for humanity’s benefit, with ongoing work across 60 government departments. India has approved two significant missions: the Venus Orbiter Mission and Chandrayaan-4 to collect lunar samples. Simultaneously, Egypt discussed its role in formulating the first African space strategy and establishing the African Space Agency.