Mar 2026

Three Horizons Analysis

Strategic framework for mapping a technology landscape across three temporal horizons of maturity, from current core capabilities to transformative possibilities. Originated in corporate strategy (Baghai, Coley, White — *The Alchemy of Growth*, 1999) and later extended by Bill Sharpe (*Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope*, 2013) into a broader futures and innovation management tool. The three horizons represent coexisting patterns of technology maturity, not sequential time periods: at any given moment, some technologies defend the present (H1), some are scaling toward dominance (H2), and some are emerging at the margins (H3).

Mar 2026

Treaty and Regime Analysis

Specialized analytical method for examining international treaties and normative regimes. Drawing on international law scholarship and international relations regime theory (Krasner, 1983; Young, 1989; Keohane, 1984), this method systematically dissects the structure of international agreements: their substantive obligations, institutional mechanisms, enforcement tools, interpretive ambiguities, compliance records, and evolutionary trajectories. In the space domain — governed by a foundational but aging treaty framework (the five UN space treaties, 1967-1979) supplemented by soft law instruments, bilateral arrangements, and emerging norms — treaty regime analysis is an indispensable tool.

Mar 2026

Trend Analysis & Extrapolation

Analysis of quantitative and qualitative trends: their direction, velocity, interactions, saturation points, and possible reversals. Rooted in statistical forecasting and systems thinking. Goes beyond simple linear extrapolation to consider S-curves, logistic growth, trend interactions, and structural breaks. Used extensively in technology forecasting (Moore's Law), demographics, and economic planning. The method provides the empirical backbone for foresight — grounding speculative scenarios in observable trajectories.

Mar 2026

Value Chain Analysis

Framework introduced by Michael Porter (1985) that decomposes an industry or firm into its strategically relevant activities to understand where value is created, captured, and lost. It distinguishes between primary activities (those directly involved in delivering the product/service) and support activities (those enabling the primary ones). In the space domain, value chain analysis is critical for understanding the upstream-to-downstream flow from component manufacturing through launch, operations, data processing, and end-user services.